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Week 4: Daily Fantasy Values/Non-Values

Rick Wood

One of the keys to winning at Daily Fantasy Football is not to pick the best players possible, but to get the most value out of the players you choose. Here are a few players who I think are underpriced this week and a few others who aren’t worth the big price tag. We will be using DraftKings’ set prices.

Underpriced:

Andy Dalton (CIN) vs KC; $5,900

Dalton and the Bengals have been on fire lately, and they now go up against the league’s 2nd worst pass defense this season. Expect Dalton to be superb once again, with the dominant AJ Green and emerging targets Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert.

Tyrod Taylor (BUF) vs NYG; $5,800

Despite coming off a fantastic performance against the Dolphins, Taylor still maintains a low price-tag going up against the underwhelming Giants pass defense. With LeSean McCoy out, expect Taylor to have many pass attempts and opportunities for big points.

Latavius Murray (OAK) at CHI; $6,300

Murray’s price tag was raised after last week’s breakout performance, yet he still isn’t priced enough. Murray is now going up against a struggling Chicago team that will be likely distracted by the team’s ongoing fire sale. Touches (and points) galore for Murray.

Lance Dunbar (DAL) at NO; $3,600

If you’re looking to stack up on the studs this week, then getting Dunbar at the very cheap price of $3,600 is worth the bargain. Dunbar dominated as a pass catcher last week vs the Falcons, and Weeden should continue to check down to his current favorite target. Dunbar has big breakout potential this week.

Amari Cooper (OAK) at CHI; $6,300

Who’s going to stop him? Amari has been thriving under Derek Carr so far and he gets another great matchup vs an inept Bears defense. Only the 18th most expensive WR this week, Cooper could definitely put up top 5 numbers Sunday.

James Jones (GB) at SF; $5,300

This matchup for the Packers has dominant fantasy performances written all over it. Take advantage of it by using James Jones, who has developed into one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite targets. Jones could easily have another 2 TD game.

Marvin Jones (CIN) vs KC; $3,800

If you plan on using Dalton in your lineup, then you should definitely put the inexpensive Marvin Jones in as well. Jones has become the 2nd guy behind AJ Green in this offense and is going up against the aforementioned abysmal Chiefs pass defense. Jones makes for great value this week.

Jason Witten (DAL) at NO; $4,400

Going up against the 2nd worst defense vs TEs in the league so far, Witten provides great value as just the 8th highest-priced TE this week. When Weeden isn’t checking the ball down to one of his running backs, Witten should be his next most reliable target.

Oakland Raiders Defense at CHI; $2,600

Continuing the trend of picking Raiders, their defense squares off against Jimmy Clausen, who will not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal. If the Bears offense plays as bad as it did last week, the Raiders defense will be well worth the small price tag.

Overpriced:

Drew Brees (NO) vs DAL; $7,400

Brees, who did not play last week, is probable for this week’s matchup. However, there are two reasons I would avoid going with Brees as the 3rd-most expensive QB this week. First, Brees is going up against one of the league’s stronger pass defenses and he will still be dealing with lingering injuries. Avoid.

Arian Foster (HOU) at ATL; $7,000

If Foster plays, you will probably be tempted to start him vs the league’s worst run defense. However, Foster will be limited with his touches and there’s a good chance the Texans will be playing from behind most of the game. I’d rather get Eddie Lacy or Latavius Murray for a similar price.

DeMarco Murray (PHI) at WAS; $6,500

Murray looks likely to start this week, but don’t expect a bounce-back game from him just yet. Murray will be going up against one of the league’s better run defenses, and he has still yet to prove he can run effectively in this offense. Murray is a player to stay far away from for now.

Calvin Johnson (DET) at SEA; $7,500

Calvin was on my list last week and he will continue to be on it for this week. Not only is Johnson facing shutdown corner Richard Sherman, but he’s dealing with a QB who just isn’t playing like himself right now. I’d wait to see if Calvin can get back on track before playing him.

Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs NYJ; $6,500

Good secondaries and bad quarterback play aren’t a good fantasy outlook for WRs. That is what Landry will be dealing with in London this week, as the inconsistent Ryan Tannehill will have to deal with Darrelle Revis and co. Use Larry Fitzgerald or Amari Cooper instead.

Travis Kelce (KC) at CIN; $5,300

Most of this week’s TEs are accurately priced, but Kelce is the riskiest choice at the top tier this week. Kelce will be going up against a secondary that has done well at stopping TEs this year. Using Greg Olsen or Martellus Bennett would be more wise.

Buffalo Bills Defense vs NYG; $3,000

Although the Bills have one of the NFL’s best defensive units, this is not the right week to use them. The Bills’ biggest weakness is defending the pass, and they will be going up against a team that loves to throw. The Bengals and Colts are better options at similar prices.

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