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Week 5 Daily Fantasy Values/Non-Values

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One of the keys to winning at Daily Fantasy Football is not to pick the best players possible, but to get the most value out of the players you choose. Here are a few players who I think are underpriced this week and a few others who aren’t worth the big price tag. We will be using DraftKings’ set prices.

Underpriced:

Sam Bradford (PHI) vs NO; $6,000

The underwhelming New Orleans secondary allowed Brandon Weeden to throw for over 200 yards. Now they face Bradford, who will be looking to avoid a 1-4 start. With the running game looking weak, expect a lot of throws from the Philadelphia offense.

Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs BUF; $6,000

Wait, against the Buffalo defense? Aren’t they supposed to be good? Not against the pass they aren’t, as they have given up the 4th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. Mariota most likely won’t be a popular pick among fans, so fire him up and give yourself the advantage.

Justin Forsett (BAL) vs CLE; $5,800

After getting off to a slumping start, Forsett broke out with an 150 yard+ performance vs the Steelers strong run defense. Now he faces a Browns run defense that has been dreadful this year. Expect the Ravens to run it a lot with the absence of Steve Smith.

Carlos Hyde (SF) at NYG; $4,900

Hyde’s price has fallen as his struggles continue after his outstanding Week 1 performance. I think this is a good spot to use him. The Giants are bottom 10 in run defense and Kaepernick’s throwing has been anything but trustworthy lately.

Kendall Wright (TEN) vs BUF; $5,400

Wright makes for a good pair with Mariota. Buffalo’s biggest weakness tends to be towards the middle of the field, where Wright loves to roam. Mariota should continue to target Wright early and often, increasing his potential for this week.

Travis Benjamin (CLE) at BAL; $4,500

Benjamin is very much a boom-or-bust fantasy player. I think he’ll boom this week, facing a struggling Ravens pass defense along with being McCown’s biggest downfield threat. Benjamin will definitely be a guy who can help win your tournament/matchup this week if he produces like he should.

Reuben Randle (NYG) vs SF; $4,400

Odell Beckham has not as been as dominant this year, with defenses paying extra attention to him. This opens up space for Randle who has now scored a touchdown the last two weeks and is facing another soft secondary. Randle makes for a good sleeper option.

Charles Clay (BUF) at TEN; $4,100

Clay is once again underpriced as just the 10th-highest priced TE this week. Clay has become Tyrod Taylor’s favorite target and is going up against another defense that performs poorly vs tight ends. Clay is the best value on the TE chart this week.

Chiefs Defense vs CHI; $2,800

Jay Cutler is missing his top two recievers, making the Chiefs one of this week’s best defensive options. $1,200 less than the top-priced defense, expect many sacks and interceptions from Andy Reid’s unit.

Overpriced:

Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs STL; $7,900

He’s an absolute must start across all fantasy leagues, but daily fantasy is a different story. The Rams defense has limited Russel Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer to under 17 points each this year, and as Rodgers had shown last week with his 16-point performance, he isn’t superhuman.

Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs WAS; $6,300

Can the currently unstoppable Freeman be…stoppable? That may be the case vs the Redskins’ rush defense, which gives up the least fantasy points to RBs this year. Keep in mind a lot of people with have Freeman on their roster this week, so he’s a must-avoid.

Jeremy Hill (CIN) vs SEA; $6,100

Hill just scored 24 points, so he’s back to form, right? I don’t think so. Hill is facing a very good Seattle run defense, so his performance is entirely dependent on TDs, which Gio Bernard could vulture from him. Not a good choice this week.

Antonio Brown (PIT) at SD; $8,700

Not only does Brown have to deal with a San Diego secondary that is giving up the least fantasy points to WRs this year, he also has to deal with Michael Vick at quarterback. Brown simply isn’t the same guy with Vick at the helm.

AJ Green (CIN) vs SEA; $7,700

Ever since Kam Chancellor returned to Seattle’s secondary, the Seahawks defense has returned to shutdown form. Green could still put up a good game if he gets targets, but he’s still not worth the risk this week.

Antonio Gates (SD) vs PIT; $4,200

He’s returning to a very favorable matchup vs the Steelers’ putrid secondary. However, I wouldn’t trust Gates just yet. Not only could Gates be rusty coming off the suspension, but there’s a good chance he splits targets with Ladarius Green.

Seahawks Defense at CIN; $4,000

Priced as the most expensive defense this week, Seattle owners could be in for a letdown. Andy Dalton has been torching opposing defenses this season, and while Seattle’s defense is very good, they aren’t worth the money when the Bills, Cardinals and Patriots are all less money.

 

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